Variabilidade espacial intraurbana da mortalidade por câncer de mama e do colo do útero no município de São Paulo: análise dos fatores associados / Intra-urban spatial variability of breast and cervical cancer mortality in the city of São Paulo: analysis of associated factors

RESUMO Objetivo: Identificar a variabilidade espacial da mortalidade por câncer de mama e colo do útero e avaliar fatores associados à mortalidade por esses cânceres no município de São Paulo. Métodos: Entre 2009 e 2016 foram registrados, no Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade, 10.124 óbitos por câncer de mama e 2.116 óbitos por câncer do colo do útero em mulheres com 20 anos e mais. Os registros foram geocodificados por endereço de residência e agregados segundo território adstrito. Foram realizadas modelagens de regressão espacial utilizando-se a abordagem bayesiana com estrutura de Besag-York-Mollié para verificar a associação dos óbitos com indicadores selecionados. Resultados: As taxas de mortalidade por esses cânceres apresentaram padrões espaciais inversos. As variáveis associadas à mortalidade por câncer de mama foram: tempo de deslocamento para o trabalho entre uma e duas horas (risco relativo — RR 0,97; intervalo de credibilidade — IC95% 0,93-1,00); mulheres responsáveis pelo domicílio (RR 0,97; IC95% 0,94-0,99) e óbitos por câncer de mama ocorridos em estabelecimentos privados (RR 1,04; IC95% 1,00-1,07). À mortalidade por câncer do colo do útero, estiveram associados: tempo de deslocamento para o trabalho entre meia e uma hora (RR 0,92; IC95% 0,87-0,98); rendimento domiciliar até três salários-mínimos (RR 1,27; IC95% 1,18-1,37); e razão de menores de um ano em relação à população feminina de 15 a 49 anos (RR 1,09; IC95% 1,01-1,18). Conclusão: Foram calculados os RR preditos para a mortalidade por esses cânceres, que estiveram associados às condições socioeconômicas das áreas de abrangência.

ABSTRACT Objective: To identify spatial variability of mortality from breast and cervical cancer and to assess factors associated in the city of São Paulo. Methods: Between 2009 and 2016, 10,124 deaths from breast cancer and 2,116 deaths from cervical cancer were recorded in the Mortality Information System among women aged 20 years and over. The records were geocoded by address of residence and grouped according to Primary Health Care coverage areas. A spatial regression modeling was put together using the Bayesian approach with a Besag-York-Mollié structure to verify the association of deaths with selected indicators. Results: Mortality rates from these types of cancer showed inverse spatial patterns. These variables were associated with breast cancer mortality: travel time between one and two hours to work (RR - relative risk: 0.97; 95%CI - credible interval: 0.93-1.00); women being the head of the household (RR 0.97; 95%CI 0.94-0.99) and deaths from breast cancer in private health institutions (RR 1.04; 95%CI 1.00-1.07). The following variables were associated with mortality from cervical cancer: travel time to work between half an hour and one hour (RR 0.92; 95%CI 0.87-0.98); per capita household income of up to 3 minimum wages (RR 1.27; 95%CI 1.18-1.37) and ratio of children under one year of age related to the female population aged 15 to 49 years (RR 1.09; 95%CI 1.01-1.18). Conclusion: The predicted RR for mortality from these cancers were calculated and associated with the socioeconomic conditions of the areas covered.

Impacto das variáveis socioeconômicas no desempenho do Enem: uma análise espacial e sociológica / Impacto de las variables socioeconómicas en el desempeño del Enem: un análisis espacial y sociológico / Impact of socioeconomic variables on Enem performance: a spatial and sociologic analysis

Resumo O objetivo deste trabalho é identificar variáveis com maior impacto no desempenho dos municípios no Exame Nacional do Ensino Médio (Enem), tanto para a prova objetiva quanto para a redação, com base em técnicas de estatística espacial, que permite analisar a dinâmica da influência territorial, e da perspectiva da sociologia da educação. Pretende-se mensurar o grau de importância de cada categoria de variáveis para a média e a variância das notas do Enem. Para isso, utilizam-se modelos estatísticos e geoespaciais, como regressão linear múltipla e regressão espacial, a partir do Enem de 2018. Para a prova objetiva, variáveis como o percentual de estudantes com bolsa, renda, raça, escolaridade e nível instrucional da mãe são fatores relevantes para o desempenho e a dispersão das notas dos estudantes de cada município. Para a redação, as variáveis são similares às da prova objetiva, mas com menor impacto na média e na dispersão das notas. Esse fator explicativo aumenta quando introduzimos um componente espacial no modelo para as notas de redação, indicando que outros fatores regionais, diferentes dos socioeconômicos, impactam o desempenho e a dispersão dos municípios. Os resultados reforçam os estudos da sociologia da educação, ao destacarem as disparidades socioeconômicas refletidas no desempenho estudantil, fundamentos da reprodução escolar das desigualdades mencionadas por Bourdieu (1998, 2008, 2009). Estudos com essa perspectiva integrada são relevantes para o entendimento da influência no nível da localidade dos municípios, podendo evidenciar lacunas específicas, direcionando e influenciando ações públicas visando à superação das desigualdades.

Resumen El objetivo de este trabajo es identificar variables con mayor impacto en el desempeño de los municipios en el Examen Nacional de Enseñanza Media (Enem), tanto para la prueba objetiva como para la prueba de redacción, a partir de técnicas de estadística espacial que permiten analizar la dinámica de la influencia territorial, y de la perspectiva de la sociología educacional. Pretendemos medir el grado de importancia de cada categoría de variables para la media y varianza de la puntuación del Enem. A tal fin, utilizamos modelos estadísticos y análisis geoespaciales, como regresión lineal y espacial, a partir del Enem 2018. Los resultados muestran que, para la prueba objetiva del Enem, variables como el porcentaje de alumnos becarios, renta, raza, escolaridad y nivel de instrucción de las madres son factores relevantes para el desempeño y dispersión de las notas de los estudiantes en cada municipio. Para el desempeño en redacción, las variables son similares a las de la prueba objetiva, no obstante, con menor impacto en la media y dispersión de la puntuación. Cuando se introduce un componente espacial en el modelo de puntuación de redacción, el factor explicativo aumenta, señalando que existen otros criterios regionales, distintos a los socioeconómicos, que impactan sobre el desempeño y dispersión de los municipios. Los resultados refuerzan los estudios de la sociología de la educación, ya que subrayan las disparidades socioeconómicas reflejadas en el desempeño de los estudiantes, que son fundamentos de la reproducción escolar de las desigualdades analizadas por Bourdieu (1998, 2008, 2009). Las investigaciones con esta perspectiva integrada son relevantes para la comprensión de la influencia en la regionalidad de los municipios, pudiendo revelar brechas específicas y, en consecuencia, dirigir e incidir en acciones públicas orientadas a la superación de desigualdades.

Abstract This study aims to identify variables with the highest impact on students' performance in the National Exam of High School (Enem), per municipality. The research adopted the educational sociology perspective and used spatial statistics to analyze the dynamics of territorial influence. We analyzed Enem 2018, measuring the degree of importance of each category of variables for the average and variance of students' grades in the exam - which is separated in an essay and an objective test - and used statistical modeling and geospatial analysis, such as linear and spatial regressions. The results indicate that, for the objective test, variables like percentage of students with scholarship, income, race, schooling, and education level of students' mothers are relevant to students' performance and dispersion of grades in each municipality. For the essay, variables were similar to the objective test but with less impact on the average and variance of the grades. This explicative factor increases when a spatial component is introduced in the model for the essay grades, indicating that there are other regional factors, besides socioeconomics, impacting the performance and dispersion per municipality. The results reinforce the sociological studies on education since the socioeconomic disparities reflected in the students' performance stand out, which are also pointed out by Bourdieu (1998, 2008, 2009) in his studies of the fundamentals of school productivity of inequalities. Studies with this integrated perspective are relevant to understand the influence of municipalities' location, evidencing specific gaps and, consequently, directing and influencing public actions to overcome inequalities.

Diferenciales intra-urbanos del suicidio: el rol de la fragmentación social en Argentina / Intra-urban differentials of suicide: the role of social fragmentation in Argentina

Abstract Suicide is one of the leading causes of death from injury in Argentina, and there are few studies analyzing intra-urban geographic variations in developing countries. The scope of this study was to analyze the relationship between suicide and socioeconomic status and social fragmentation in small areas of the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires (CABA) during the 2011-2015 period. An ecological study was conducted using data on suicide records in the resident population of the CABA available at the National Ministry of Security. A multiple spatial regression was carried out to test the relationship between suicide and indicators of socioeconomic status and social fragmentation by area. The risk of suicide was positively associated with higher indices of social fragmentation, whereas it was not related to the indices of poverty. The results of this study support the hypothesis of social fragmentation as a factor positively associated with the increase of intra-urban suicide in cities of developing countries.

Resumen El suicidio constituye una de las principales causas de muerte por lesiones en Argentina y existen pocos estudios que analicen las variaciones geográficas intra-urbanas en países en desarrollo. El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar la relación entre el suicidio y el nivel socioeconómico y la fragmentación social en áreas pequeñas de la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (CABA) durante el período 2011-2015. Se realizó un estudio ecológico utilizando datos sobre registros de suicidio en población residente de la CABA disponibles en el Ministerio de Seguridad de la Nación. Se llevó a cabo una regresión múltiple espacial para poner a prueba la relación entre el suicidio e indicadores de nivel socioeconómico y de fragmentación social por área. El riesgo de suicidio estuvo asociado positivamente a mayores índices de fragmentación social, mientras no mostró relación con el índice de pobreza. Los resultados de este estudio apoyan la hipótesis de fragmentación social como un factor asociado positivamente al aumento del suicidio a nivel intra-urbano en ciudades de países en desarrollo.

Hypertension Prevalence, Awareness, Treatment, and Control and Their Associated Socioeconomic Factors in China: A Spatial Analysis of A National Representative Survey / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Objective@#We aimed to investigate and interpret the associations between socioeconomic factors and the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension at the provincial level in China.@*Methods@#A nationally and provincially representative sample of 179,059 adults from the China Chronic Disease and Nutrition Surveillance study in 2015-2016 was used to estimate hypertension burden. The spatial Durbin error model was fitted to investigate socioeconomic factors associated with hypertension indicators.@*Results@#Overall, it was estimated that 29.20% of the participants were hypertensive nationwide, among whom, 34.32% were aware of their condition, 27.69% had received antihypertensive treatment, and 7.81% had controlled their condition. Per capita gross domestic product (GDP) was associated with hypertension prevalence (coefficient: -2.95, 95% @*Conclusion@#Hypertension indicators were not only directly influenced by socioeconomic factors of local area but also indirectly affected by characteristics of geographical neighbors. Population-level strategies should involve optimizing supportive socioeconomic environment by integrating clinical care and public health services to decrease hypertension burden.

Análisis geográfico de la mortalidad de diferentes usuarios de vías de tránsito y factores de área asociados en Argentina / Geographic analysis of the mortality of different road users and associated area factors in Argentina

Resumen Introducción Las muertes por lesiones de tránsito son la principal causa de muerte por lesiones en la población de 5-64 años en Argentina. Objetivo Describir las variaciones espaciales del riesgo de mortalidad de diferentes tipos de usuarios de vías de tránsito y analizar factores de área asociados con el riesgo de mortalidad en Argentina durante los períodos 1999-2003 y 2008-2012. Método Se realizó un estudio ecológico espacial utilizando los departamentos/partidos como unidades de análisis. Se consideraron las muertes de peatones, usuarios de bicicleta, motocicleta y automóvil y usuarios no especificados de vías de tránsito. Como variables independientes se seleccionaron variables sociodemográficas y variables de patentamiento automotor. Resultados El riesgo de mortalidad de los usuarios de vías de tránsito se concentró espacialmente durante los dos períodos en Argentina. El nivel socioeconómico bajo a nivel departamental estuvo relacionado a un riesgo alto de mortalidad en peatones y usuarios de bicicleta. En áreas con mayor patentamiento de nuevos automóviles se observó un mayor riesgo de mortalidad en usuarios de bicicletas durante 1999-2003. Conclusión Las grandes disparidades en la distribución geográfica del riesgo de mortalidad de diferentes usuarios de vías de tránsito indican la adopción de políticas regionales de seguridad vial diferenciales en Argentina.

Abstract Background Traffic injury deaths are the leading cause of injury death in the 5-64-year-old population in Argentina. Objective To describe the spatial variations of the risk of mortality of different types of road users and to analyze area factors associated with the risk of mortality in Argentina during the periods 1999-2003 and 2008-2012. Method A spatial ecological study was carried out using the departments/parties as spatial units of analysis. The deaths of pedestrians, bicycle, motorcycle, and automobile users, and unspecified road users were considered. Sociodemographic characteristics of area and variables related to automotive patenting were the independent variables. Results The mortality risk of road users was spatially concentrated during the two periods in Argentina. The low socioeconomic level at the departmental level was related to a high risk of mortality in pedestrians and bicycle users. In areas with higher patenting of new cars, a higher risk of mortality was observed in bicycle users during 1999-2003. Conclusion The great disparities in the geographical distribution of the mortality risk of different road users indicated the adoption of different regional road safety policies at the national level.

Exploration of population ecological factors related to the spatial heterogeneity of dengue fever cases diagnosed through a national network of laboratories in India, 2017

Background & objectives: Dengue virus (DENV) transmission is known to be influenced by the environmental conditions. During 2017, the Viral Research and Diagnostic Laboratories (VRDLs) tested 78,744 suspected dengue fever (DF) patients, of whom, 21,260 were laboratory confirmed. The objectives of the study were to evaluate the hypothesis that spatial heterogeneity existed for DF patients and to identify significant determinants of DENV transmission in various districts across the Indian States during 2017. Methods: Laboratory confirmed DF cases were analysed from 402 districts spread across the Indian States. The determinants for DF transmission included in the model were population density, proportion of population living in rural areas, proportion o f forest cover area to the total geographical area, proportion of persons not able to read and write and who were aged greater than seven years; the climatic variables considered were minimum, maximum and average temperature, precipitation and cumulative rainfall. The spatial heterogeneity was assessed using spatial regression analysis. Results: DF cases showed strong spatial dependency, with Moran's I=4.44 (P <0.001). The robust measure for spatial lag (6.55; P=0.01) was found to be the best model fit for the data set. Minimum temperature and cumulative rainfall were significant predictors. Interpretation & conclusions: A significant increase in the number of dengue cases has occurred when the minimum temperature was 23.0-25.8癈 and the cumulative rainfall 118.14-611.64 mm across the Indian districts. Further in-depth investigations incorporating more number of demographic, ecological and socio-economic factors would be needed for robust conclusions.

Neighborhood social environment and disability among Mexican older adults: a cohort-based analysis / O ambiente social da vizinhança e a incapacidade nos idosos mexicanos: uma análise de coorte / Ambiente social del vecindario y discapacidad entre adultos mayores mejicanos: un análisis basado en cohortes

Considering that the world population is rapidly aging and disability is a very frequent event in older adults, there is an increasing interest in studying their determinants, such as the neighborhood characteristics. Thus, this study aimed to explore the association between the social environment of the neighborhood and disability in older adults. A cohort study was assembled using waves 1 and 2 from the Study of Global Ageing and Adults Health (SAGE) in Mexico, which included adults with 55+ years old. Neighborhood characteristics - such as social participation, trust and safety - and individual covariates were measured only in wave 1 (baseline), while disability was measured in both waves to adjust for the score of wave 1. Multilevel negative binomial models with random intercepts at the municipality level were constructed for the disability score in wave 2, using each of the social environment variables as the main exposure and adjusting for the sociodemographic and health-related variables. Finally, interaction terms with sex, age, and socioeconomic quintiles were tested. Results showed that neighborhoods with a medium (IRR: 0.68; 95%CI: 0.53-0.87) or high (IRR: 0.67; 95%CI: 0.52-0.86) safety level were associated with a significant reduction in the disability score of adults older than 75 years, although there was no association between other characteristics of the social environment and disability in the general sample. Consequently, actions to improve safety in the neighborhoods should be carried out to help reduce the disability score in vulnerable older adults, especially in a context where safety is a critical issue, as in Mexico.

Considerando que la población mundial está envejeciendo rápidamente y la discapacidad es un hecho muy frecuente entre la tercera edad, existe un creciente interés por estudiar los determinantes de esta última, así como las características del vecindario. Por lo tanto, el objetivo de este estudio fue investigar la asociación entre el ambiente social del vecindario y la discapacidad en adultos mayores. La cohorte de estudio se formó usando las curvas 1 y 2, procedentes del Estudio Global sobre el Envejecimiento y la Salud del Adulto (SAGE por sus siglas en inglés) en México, que incluyó adultos de 55+ años. Características del vecindario como: participación social, confianza y seguridad, así como las covariables individuales se midieron sólo en la curva 1 (base de referencia), mientras que la discapacidad se midió en ambas curvas para ajustarla a la puntuación de la curva 1. Se realizaron modelos binomiales negativos multinivel con intercepciones aleatorias en el nivel municipal para el marcador de discapacidad en la curva 2, usando cada una de las variables socioambientales como las de principal exposición y ajustándolas a las variables sociodemográficas, así como a las relacionadas con la salud. Finalmente, se probaron los términos de interacción con sexo, edad, así como quintiles socioeconómicos. Los resultados mostraron que los vecindarios con una media (IRR: 0,68; IC95%: 0,53-0,87) o alto (IRR: 0,67; IC95%: 0,52-0,86) nivel de seguridad estuvieron asociados con una significativa reducción en el marcador de discapacidad de adultos 75+ años, pese a que no hubo asociación entre otras características del ambiente social y discapacidad en la muestra general. Consecuentemente, las acciones para mejorar la seguridad en los vecindarios deberían haber ayudado a reducir la puntuación en discapacidad en ancianos vulnerables, especialmente, en un contexto donde la seguridad es un asunto crítico, como en México.

Considerando o envelhecimento rápido da população mundial e o fato de a incapacidade ser um evento muito frequente nos idosos, há um interesse cada vez maior no estudo dos determinantes da incapacidade, que incluem as características da vizinhança. Portanto, o estudo procurou explorar a associação entre o ambiente social da vizinhança e a incapacidade nos idosos. Foi organizado um estudo de coorte com as ondas 1 e 2 do Estudo sobre Envelhecimento Global e Saúde do Adulto (SAGE) no México, que incluiu adultos com 55 anos ou mais. As características da vizinhança, tais como a participação social, confiança e segurança, e as covariáveis individuais foram medidas apenas na onda 1 (linha de base), enquanto a incapacidade era medida em ambas as ondas para ajustar para a pontuação da onda 1. Foram construídos modelos binomiais negativos multiníveis com interceptos no nível municipal para a pontuação da incapacidade na onda 2, usando cada uma das variáveis ambientais como a principal variável de exposição, e ajustando para as variáveis sociodemográficas e sanitárias. Finalmente, foram testados termos de interação com sexo, idade e quintis socioeconômicos. Os resultados mostraram que os bairros com nível de segurança médio (RTI: 0,68; IC95%: 0,53-0,87) ou alto (RTI: 0,67; IC95%: 0,52-0,86) estavam associados com uma redução significativa na escala de incapacidade nos idosos com 75 anos ou mais, embora não houvesse associação entre outras características do entorno e a incapacidade na amostra geral. Portanto, são necessárias medidas para melhorar a segurança dos bairros para ajudar a reduzir a escala da incapacidade nos idosos vulneráveis, principalmente em um contexto onde a segurança é uma questão crítica, como no México.

Geospatial analysis of births with congenital disorders, Paraná, 2008-2015: ecological study / Análisis geoespacial de los nacimientos con anomalías congénitas, Paraná, 2008-2015: un estudio ecológico / Análise geoespacial dos nascimentos com anomalias congênitas, Paraná, 2008-2015: estudo ecológico

ABSTRACT Objective: analyze the pattern of spatial distribution of the prevalence rate of births with congenital disorders and its relationship with social, economic, health care and environmental indicators in Paraná, Brazil, from 2008 to 2015. Method: ecological study with variables extracted from secondary banks, related to the births of children of mothers residing in Paraná, in two quadrennial (2008-2011 and 2012-2015). The analysis of the rates was performed with univariate spatial (Moran) and multivariate approach (Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression). Results: the occurrence of congenital disorders presented a significant association (p<0.05) with: registration in primary care of pregnant women over 20 years of age; urbanization degree; consumption of pesticides; and balance of female formal employment. Conclusion/Final considerations: social, health care and environmental variables showed a non-stationary spatial pattern in the analyzed period and influenced positively and negatively the rates.

RESUMEN Objetivo: Evaluar el patrón de distribución espacial de la tasa de prevalencia de los nacimientos con anomalías congénitas y su relación con los indicadores sociales, económicos, medioambientales, de atención a la salud en el estado de Paraná, Brasil, de 2008 a 2015. Método: Estudio ecológico con variables de bancos secundarios, relativas a los nacimientos de hijos de madres residentes en el estado de Paraná, en dos cuatrienios (2008-2011 y 2012-2015). Se hizo el análisis de las tasas desde el análisis espacial univariada (Moran) y multivariante (Ordinary Least Squares y Geographically Weighted Regression). Resultados: La presencia de anomalías congénitas presentó una asociación significativa (p <0,05) con: el registro en la atención primaria de gestantes mayores de 20 años de edad; el grado de urbanización; el consumo de agrotóxicos; y el saldo de empleo formal femenino. Conclusión: Las variables sociales, medioambientales y de atención a la salud demostraron haber un patrón espacial no estacionario en el período analizado, además influenciaron positiva y negativamente las tasas.

RESUMO Objetivo: Analisar o padrão de distribuição espacial da taxa de prevalência dos nascimentos com anomalias congênitas e sua relação com indicadores sociais, econômicos, de atenção à saúde e ambientais no estado do Paraná, Brasil, de 2008 a 2015. Método: Estudo ecológico com variáveis extraídas de bancos secundários, relativas aos nascimentos de filhos de mães residentes no estado do Paraná, em dois quadriênios (2008-2011 e 2012-2015). A análise das taxas foi realizada com abordagem espacial univariada (Moran) e multivariada (Ordinary Least Squares e Geographically Weighted Regression). Resultados: A ocorrência de anomalias congênitas apresentou associação significativa (p<0,05) com: cadastramento na atenção primária de gestantes maiores de 20 anos; grau de urbanização; consumo de agrotóxicos; e saldo de emprego formal feminino. Conclusão: As variáveis sociais, de atenção à saúde e ambientais demonstraram padrão espacial não estacionário no período analisado e influenciaram positiva e negativamente as taxas.

Distribuição espacial dos nascimentos com anomalia congênita, Paraná, 2008 a 2015: um estudo ecológico / Spatial distribution of births with congenital anomaly, Paraná, 2008 to 2015: an ecological study

Resumo: Introdução: De 1990 a 2015, a taxa de mortalidade infantil no Brasil apresentou queda significativa de 72%. Porém, atualmente, uma proporção crescente de óbitos infantis é atribuída às anomalias congênitas, que passaram de 5ª a 2ª causa de mortalidade infantil no mesmo período. Objetivo: Traçar o perfil epidemiológico e distribuição espacial dos Nascimentos, com foco nas Anomalias Congênitas, no estado do Paraná, Brasil, de 2008 a 2015. Metodologia: Trata-se de uma pesquisa ecológica, transversal, retrospectiva e censitária, que trabalhou com banco de dados secundários, relativos ao período de 2008 a 2015, organizado em dois quadriênios. Estudadas variáveis maternas, dos recém-nascidos e assistenciais com análise descritiva. Realizada análise inferencial univariada e multivariada através da Geoestatística espacial segundo regiões administrativas e municípios do estado do Paraná. Resultados: Observou-se a maior ocorrência de nascimentos com anomalias congênitas nas faixas etárias maternas extremas (?19 anos e ? 35 anos); as mães solteiras apresentaram maior percentual de nascimentos com anomalia congênita; tipo de gestação e apresentação, denota-se no nascimento com anomalias congênitas a superioridade de gravidez gemelar e de apresentações pélvicas e transversas. Quanto às variáveis dos recém-nascidos destacou-se o sexo masculino e escore do Apgar menores, com maior risco para a ocorrência. Assistenciais: duração da gestação e peso ao nascer, os nascidos prematuramente foram três vezes maiores nos casos de anomalia; quanto ao tipo de parto, destacou-se no período a cesariana; com relação ao número de consultas e trimestre de início do pré-natal a maior parte alcançou onúmero mínimo de sete consultas e início precoce. Tipos de anomalias congênitas deacordo com as faixas etárias maternas, destacaram-se nas duas primeiras faixas as malformações e deformidades congênitas do sistema osteomuscular, em segundo as do sistema nervoso, em seguida, a fenda labiopalatal. Já em mães do grupo etário de 35 anos ou mais, observou-se maior ocorrência das anomalias cromossômicas. Na análise da distribuição espacial, evidenciou-se maiores taxas de prevalência inversamente proporcional ao cadastramento de gestantes na atenção primária e a cobertura da Estratégia Saúde da Família; destacou-se também o emprego formal feminino, o consumo abusivo de álcool em maiores de 15 anos, e o consumo de agrotóxicos com alta significância estatística para a ocorrência de anomalias congênitas. Conclusões: Consideram-se limitações desta pesquisa o trabalho com banco de dados secundários, inferindo a necessidade de melhorias contínuas, além da falta de padrão de cálculo para a Taxa de Prevalência, nacional e internacionalmente. Se conclui que o conhecimento gerado por esta pesquisa revela parcialmente a casuística da situação problema de saúde pública - os nascimentos com anomalias congênitas. E considerando que em futuro próximo a anomalia congênita se tornará a principal causa de mortalidade infantil, assim como ocorre nos países desenvolvidos, os achados fornecem conhecimento estadual e local da problemática. Este diagnóstico poderá subsidiar os gestores para a o planejamento e qualificação dos serviços de saúde oferecidos para o atendimento adequado desta população, crescente numericamente e em morbidades, além da oferta de suporte para as famílias afetadas pelo agravo.

Abstract: Introduction: From 1990 to 2015, the infant mortality rate in Brazil showed a significant fall of 72%. Currently, however, an increasing proportion of infant deaths is attributed to congenital anomalies, which have gone from 5th to 2nd cause of infant mortality in the same period. Objective: To describe the epidemiological profile and spatial distribution of births, with a focus on congenital anomalies in the state of Paraná, Brazil, from 2008 to 2015. Methodology: This is an ecological, cross-sectional, retrospective and census research that worked with a bank of secondary database, covering the period from 2008 to 2015, organized in two quadrenniums. Maternal, newborn and care variables were studied with descriptive analysis. Univariate and multivariate inferential analysis was performed through spatial geostatistics according to administrative regions and municipalities in the state of Paraná. Results: The highest occurrence of births with congenital anomalies in the extreme maternal age groups (?19 years and ? 35 years) was observed; single mothers had a higher percentage of births with congenital anomaly; type of gestation and presentation, the superiority of twin pregnancy and of pelvic and transverse presentations is denoted at birth with congenital anomalies. As for the variables of the newborns, the male gender and the smaller Apgar score were the most at risk. Attendance: duration of gestation and birth weight, those born prematurely were three times higher in cases of anomaly; Regarding the type of delivery, the cesarean section was highlighted; with respect to the number of visits and prenatal start-up period, the majority reached a minimum of seven visits and early onset. Types of congenital anomalies in accordance with maternal age, stood out in the first two tracks of congenital deformities and abnormalities of the musculoskeletal system, according to the nervous system, then the labiopalatal slit. In mothers of the age group of 35 years or more, there was a greater occurrence of chromosomal abnormalities. In the analysis of the spatial distribution, it was evidenced higher prevalence rates inversely proportional to the registration of pregnant women in the primary care and the coverage of the Family Health Strategy; women's formal employment, abusive consumption of alcohol over 15 years and the consumption of pesticides with high statistical significance for the occurrence of congenital anomalies were also highlighted. Conclusions: We consider limitations of this research the work with secondary databases, inferring the need for continuous improvements, besides the lack of calculation standard for the Prevalence Rate, nationally and internationally. It concludes that the knowledge generated by this research partially reveals the casuistry of the public health problem situation - births with congenital anomalies. And considering that soon the congenital anomaly will become the main cause of infant mortality, as occurs in developed countries, the findings provide state and local knowledge of the problem. This diagnosis may subsidize the managers for the planning and qualification of the health services offered for the adequate attendance of this population, increasing numerically and in morbidities, besides the offer of support for the families affected by the aggravation.

Spatio-temporal assessment of infant mortality rate in India

Background: Infant mortality rate (IMR) is globally identified by the policymakers as the marker of health of a population. Objectives: This study aimed to detect the change in hotspots of IMR in Indian states from the year 2000 to 2012, identify hotspots of IMR at district level in selected states from each of the six regions of India and determine the potential predictors of IMR after accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Methods: Ecological study design was used to analyze state and district level data on IMR of India. For the first objective, the data were obtained from Sample Registration System. For the second objective, we classified India into six regions and selected a state in each region that had the highest IMR. The district level data on IMR and potential predictors were obtained from surveys, namely, Annual Health Survey, District Level Household and Facility Survey and Census. Spatio-temporal hotspots of IMR were examined using local indicators of spatial association statistic. Spatial regression was used to identify the potential predictors of IMR after accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Results: Temporal hotspots of IMR were found in the central part of India. Spatial hotspots were identified in districts of Uttar Pradesh. A negative association of IMR existed with female literacy rate, mothers receiving antenatal checkup (%), and people living in urban areas (%). Conclusion: IMR continues to be a problem in the states that have previously shown to be poor performing. Certain districts within these states need emphasis for focused activities.

Variación espacial de la cobertura del tratamiento de hipertensión arterial, en el municipio de Santiago de Chile / Spatial variation of hypertension treatment coverage in the municipality of Santiago, Chile

RESUMEN Una de las tareas de la atención primaria de la salud es alcanzar una cobertura adecuada para el tratamiento de pacientes con hipertensión arterial. El objetivo de este estudio es analizar la variación espacial de la cobertura del tratamiento de hipertensión arterial en el municipio de Santiago de Chile, en el año de 2014, evaluando su relación con la distancia hacia los establecimientos de atención primaria y con factores socioeconómicos del lugar, utilizando técnicas de georreferenciamiento, modelos de regresión de Poisson global y geográficamente ponderada. Los resultados mostraron que la cobertura del tratamiento de hipertensión arterial presentaba dependencia espacial, dado que su relación con la presencia de adultos mayores, la proporción de inscritos, el nivel socioeconómico y la distancia hacia los establecimientos de salud varía en el espacio. Se concluye que para mejorar la cobertura de hipertensión arterial es necesario contemplar las diferentes realidades locales, lo que puede ser facilitado mediante la aplicación de técnicas de análisis espacial.

ABSTRACT One of the tasks of primary health care is to achieve adequate treatment coverage for patients with arterial hypertension. The aim of this study was to analyze the spatial variation of hypertension treatment coverage in the municipality of Santiago de Chile in 2014, evaluating its relationship with the distance to primary health care establishments and socioeconomic factors using georeferencing techniques and global and geographically weighted Poisson regression models. According to the results, arterial hypertension treatment coverage shows spatial dependence, given that its relationship with the presence of older adults, the proportion of population enrolled, socioeconomic status and the distance to primary health care establishments varied spatially. It is concluded that in order to improve hypertension coverage it is necessary to consider different local realities, a process that can be facilitated by the application of spatial analysis techniques.

Effect of vegetation on cutaneous leishmaniasis in Paraná, Brazil

BACKGROUND Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is endemic in the state of Paraná, Brazil. OBJECTIVE This study aimed at analysing the influence of the remaining native vegetation on the prevalence of CL in Paraná. METHODS Global testing was used for spatial autocorrelation along with simultaneous autoregressive model (SAR). The regression was based on the CL coefficient (cases/100,000 inhabitants) as a function of the percentage of natural vegetation cover, altitude, total number of cases, and spatial density (SD) per km2; the location data of the Paraná state municipalities and the detection coefficient (DC) (cases/100,000 inhabitants) of autochthonous cases of CL were obtained from the SINAN in 2012 and 2016. Data on the remaining forests were collected from the Fundação SOS Mata Atlântica and Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais. FINDINGS The spatial regression of DC revealed statistical significance for SD (Z = 24.1359, p < 0.05, 2012-2013; Z = 24.0817, p < 0.05, 2013-2014; Z = 33.4824, p < 0.05, 2014-2015; and Z = 27.1515, p < 0.05, 2015-2016. CONCLUSIONS CL cases are reported in areas with native vegetation, such as in riparian forests. However, vegetation is not the only variable that influences the incidence of CL.

Spatial distribution characteristics analysis of chronic Keshan disease in China / 中华地方病学杂志

Objective To explore the spatial distribution clustering and influencing factors of chronic Keshan disease in China,and to provide evidence for prevention and control of Keshan disease.Methods Using non-probability sampling methods,combined with case search and key surveys,data on national detection rate of chronic Keshan disease,on disease influencing factors in 2013-2014 were collected;a spatial database was established,and ArcGIS 9.0 software was used to perform global Moran'sI,local Moran's I,local Getis-Ord Gi and inverse distance weighted interpolation analysis for the detection rate of national chronic Keshan disease.Spatial regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of chronic Keshan disease.Results Global autocorrelation analysis showed that Moran's I =0.03,Z =2.72,P ＜ 0.01,indicating that there was aggregation in the detection rate of Keshan disease.The results of local Moran's Ii showed that there were local high-detection rate clusters in the wards of Keshan disease,and the high-high aggregation areas were mainly concentrated in the wards of Gansu,Inner Mongolia,and Shanxi;the high-low aggregation areas were mainly located in the wards of Heilongjiang,Jilin,Shandong;the low-high aggregation area were mainly located in the wards of Heilongjiang.Getis-Ord Gi autocorrelation results showed that Keshan disease hotspots were mainly located in the wards of Inner Mongolia,Heilongjiang,Gansu,Shandong,Shanxi and Yunnan;the results of reverse distance weighted interpolation showed that the detection rates of the counties in Gansu and Inner Mongolia were higher than that in Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning,Shanxi,Shandong,Shaanxi and Yunnan,the detection rate of wards in other provinces was at a lower level.Spatial regression analysis showed that the spatial distribution of chronic Keshan disease was negatively related to rural per capita net income and annual average temperature in the ward (Z =-2.808,-2.747,P ＜ 0.05).Conclusions Global chronic Keshan disease exists spatial aggregation,the local gathering area is mainly located in the wards of Gansu,Inner Mongolia.The spatial distribution of chronic Keshan disease may be affected by the level of rural per capita net income and annual average temperature in the ward.

Comparing definitions of spatial relations for the analysis of geographic disparities in mortality within a Bayesian mixed-effects framework / Comparação de definições de relações espaciais para a análise das desigualdades geográficas na mortalidade no quadro de efeitos mistos bayesiana

ABSTRACT: Objective: To analyze the conceptual and technical differences between three definitions of spatial relations within a Bayesian mixed-effects framework: classical multilevel definition, spatial multiple membership definition and conditional autoregressive definition with an illustration of the estimate of geographic disparities in early neonatal mortality in Colombia, 2011-2014. Methods: A registry based cross-sectional study was conducted. Births and early neonatal deaths were obtained from the Colombian vital statistics registry for 2011-2014. Crude and adjusted Bayesian mixed effects regressions were performed for each definition of spatial relation. Model fit statistics, spatial autocorrelation of residuals and estimated mortality rates, geographic disparity measures, relative ratios and relative differences were compared. Results: The definition of spatial relations between municipalities based on the conditional autoregressive prior showed the best performance according to both fit statistics and residual spatial pattern analyses. Spatial multiple membership definition had a poor performance. Conclusion: Bayesian mixed effects regression with conditional autoregressive prior as an analytical framework may be an important contribution to epidemiological design as an improved alternative to ecological methods in the analyses of geographic disparities of mortality, considering potential ecological bias and spatial model misspecification.

RESUMO: Objetivo: Analisar as diferenças conceptuais e técnicas entre três definições de relações espaciais dentro do quadro de efeitos mistos bayesiano: definição multinível clássica, definição de filiação múltipla espacial e definição condicional auto regressivo com uma ilustração da estimativa das disparidades geográficas na mortalidade neonatal precoce na Colômbia, 2011-2014. Métodos: Foi realizado um estudo transversal de base do registro. Nascimentos e mortes neonatais precoces foram obtidos a partir do registro de estatísticas vitais Colombiano para o período 2011-2014. Regressões mistas bayesianas brutos e ajustados foram realizadas para cada definição de relação espacial. As estatísticas de ajuste do modelo, autocorrelação espacial dos resíduos, as estimativas das taxas de mortalidade, as medidas de disparidade geográfica, as relações relativas e as diferenças relativas foram comparadas. Resultados: A definição das relações espaciais entre os municípios com base no priori condicional auto regressivo apresentou o melhor desempenho de acordo com as estatísticas de ajuste e a análises de padrão espacial dos resíduos. A definição de filiação múltipla espacial mostrou o mau desempenho. Conclusão: A regressão de efeitos mistos bayesiana com priori condicional auto regressivo como quadro analítico pode ser uma contribuição importante para desenho epidemiológico como uma alternativa melhorada aos métodos ecológicos nas análises das desigualdades geográficas, considerando e potencial viés ecológico e má especificação do modelo espacial.

Análise espacial da Tuberculose no Rio de Janeiro no período de 2005 a 2008 e fatores socioeconômicos associados utilizando microdado e modelos de regressão espaciais globais / Spatial analysis of Tuberculosis in Rio de Janeiro in the period from 2005 to 2008 and associated socioeconomic factors using micro data and global spatial regression models

Resumo Este trabalho analisa o padrão espacial da tuberculose no período de 2005 a 2008 identificando variáveis socioeconômicas relevantes para a ocorrência da doença através de modelos estatísticos espaciais. É um estudo ecológico realizado no Rio de Janeiro com casos novos. Utilizou-se o setor censitário como unidade de análise. Foram calculadas as taxas de incidência e usado o método Bayesiano Empírico Local. Foi constatada a autocorrelação espacial com Índice de Moran e LISA. Usando teste de Spearman, as variáveis com correlação estatisticamente significativas a 5% foram utilizadas nos modelos. No modelo de regressão multivariado clássico as variáveis Proporção de responsável com renda entre 1 e 2 salários-mínimos, Proporção de analfabetos, Proporção de domicílios com pessoas que moram sozinhas e Renda média do responsável se ajustaram melhor. Essas variáveis foram inseridas nos modelos Spatial Lag e Spatial Error e os resultados comparados. O primeiro apresentou os melhores parâmetros: R2 = 0,3215, Log da Verossimilhança = -9228, AIC = 18468 e SBC = 18512. Os métodos estatísticos apresentaram-se eficientes na identificação de padrões espaciais e definição de determinantes da doença dando uma visão da heterogeneidade no espaço, possibilitando uma atuação mais direcionada a populações específicas.

Abstract The present study analyses the spatial pattern of tuberculosis (TB) from 2005 to 2008 by identifying relevant socioeconomic variables for the occurrence of the disease through spatial statistical models. This ecological study was performed in Rio de Janeiro using new cases. The census sector was used as the unit of analysis. Incidence rates were calculated, and the Local Empirical Bayesian method was used. The spatial autocorrelation was verified with Moran's Index and local indicators of spatial association (LISA). Using Spearman's test, variables with significant correlation at 5% were used in the models. In the classic multivariate regression model, the variables that fitted better to the model were proportion of head of family with an income between 1 and 2 minimum wages, proportion of illiterate people, proportion of households with people living alone and mean income of the head of family. These variables were inserted in the Spatial Lag and Spatial Error models, and the results were compared. The former exhibited the best parameters: R2 = 0.3215, Log-Likelihood = -9228, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) = 18,468 and Schwarz Bayesian Criterion (SBC) = 18,512. The statistical methods were effective in the identification of spatial patterns and in the definition of determinants of the disease providing a view of the heterogeneity in space, allowing actions aimed more at specific populations.

Analysis of the relationship between community characteristics and depression using geographically weighted regression / 한국역학회지

OBJECTIVES: Achieving national health equity is currently a pressing issue. Large regional variations in the health determinants are observed. Depression, one of the most common mental disorders, has large variations in incidence among different populations, and thus must be regionally analyzed. The present study aimed at analyzing regional disparities in depressive symptoms and identifying the health determinants that require regional interventions. METHODS: Using health indicators of depression in the Korea Community Health Survey 2011 and 2013, the Moran's I was calculated for each variable to assess spatial autocorrelation, and a validated geographically weighted regression analysis using ArcGIS version 10.1 of different domains: health behavior, morbidity, and the social and physical environments were created, and the final model included a combination of significant variables in these models. RESULTS: In the health behavior domain, the weekly breakfast intake frequency of 1-2 times was the most significantly correlated with depression in all regions, followed by exposure to secondhand smoke and the level of perceived stress in some regions. In the morbidity domain, the rate of lifetime diagnosis of myocardial infarction was the most significantly correlated with depression. In the social and physical environment domain, the trust environment within the local community was highly correlated with depression, showing that lower the level of trust, higher was the level of depression. A final model was constructed and analyzed using highly influential variables from each domain. The models were divided into two groups according to the significance of correlation of each variable with the experience of depression symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: The indicators of the regional health status are significantly associated with the incidence of depressive symptoms within a region. The significance of this correlation varied across regions.

Temporal and spatial distribution of Schistosoma infection of population and its risk factors in Eastern Dongting Lake area in 2012 and 2014 / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

Objective To investigate the temporal and spatial distribution of Schistosoma infection of population and its risk factors in Eastern Dongting Lake area in 2012 and 2014,so as to provide the reference for formulating effective intervention mea-sures. Methods Junshan District was selected as a study field in Eastern Dongting Lake area. The method of spatial autocorre-lation analysis was applied to analyze the change of spatial distribution of Schistosoma infection in Junshan District in 2012 and 2014. The spatial regression model was fitted to detect the risk factors for human infection. Results The livestock infection rate in 2013 was lower than that in 2011. The average infection rate of schistosome was reduced to 0.55%in 2014. The spatial auto-correlation existed on the distribution of schistosomiasis in Junshan District in both 2012 and 2014 and 4 high incidence villages were identified. The results of the spatial error model showed that the prevalence of human infection was positively correlated with the infection rate of the livestock and the area of the susceptible environment in 2012. The spatial lag model showed that the prevalence of human schistosomiasis was positively correlated with the area of the susceptible environment ,but not with the in-fection rate of livestock. Conclusion The measures involving grazing prohibition and phasing out cattle and sheep are remark-ably effective and should continue on the basis of the current spatial distribution of schistosomiasis in this area.

Analysis of the relationship between community characteristics and depression using geographically weighted regression / 한국역학회지

OBJECTIVES: Achieving national health equity is currently a pressing issue. Large regional variations in the health determinants are observed. Depression, one of the most common mental disorders, has large variations in incidence among different populations, and thus must be regionally analyzed. The present study aimed at analyzing regional disparities in depressive symptoms and identifying the health determinants that require regional interventions.METHODS: Using health indicators of depression in the Korea Community Health Survey 2011 and 2013, the Moran's I was calculated for each variable to assess spatial autocorrelation, and a validated geographically weighted regression analysis using ArcGIS version 10.1 of different domains: health behavior, morbidity, and the social and physical environments were created, and the final model included a combination of significant variables in these models.RESULTS: In the health behavior domain, the weekly breakfast intake frequency of 1-2 times was the most significantly correlated with depression in all regions, followed by exposure to secondhand smoke and the level of perceived stress in some regions. In the morbidity domain, the rate of lifetime diagnosis of myocardial infarction was the most significantly correlated with depression. In the social and physical environment domain, the trust environment within the local community was highly correlated with depression, showing that lower the level of trust, higher was the level of depression. A final model was constructed and analyzed using highly influential variables from each domain. The models were divided into two groups according to the significance of correlation of each variable with the experience of depression symptoms.CONCLUSIONS: The indicators of the regional health status are significantly associated with the incidence of depressive symptoms within a region. The significance of this correlation varied across regions.

Analysis of spatiotemporal patterns and influential factors for mushroom poisoning in Hunan Province in 2015 / 中南大学学报(医学版)

Objective:To understand the spatial distribution of mushroom poisoning in Hunan Province and its influential factors,and to provide the evidence for control of the mushroom poisoning.Methods:The surveillance data for mushroom poisoning cases from 122 counties in Hunan Province in 2015 were collected.Based on geographical information system database,spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial regression analysis (via OpenGeoDa) was conducted.Results:The incidence of mushroom poisoning in Hunan Province in 2015 was 2.94/100 000.Global Moran's I values was 0.315 (P＜0.05).Local spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that Ningxiang,Xiangtan,Shaoyang,Lingling,Jiahe,and Linwu districts et al were "positive hotspot" regions.Guzhang,Hecheng,Dingcheng,Yueyang districts et al were "negative hotspot" regions.Spatial regression analysis revealed that the reported incidence of mushroom poisoning was positively correlated with the annual average temperate (Z=2.145,P=0.032),the number of health care institutions per capita (Z=2.352,P=0.019),and the number of students enrollment in secondary schools (Z=4.309,P＜0.001).It was negatively associated with the number of school staff and workers of secondary schools (Z=-2.626,P=0.009).Conclusion:The spatial distribution of mushroom poisoning cases in Hunan Province in 2015 is highly clustered.Mushroom poisoning cases are more prevalent in the middle and southern regions and less prevalent in the northern areas of the province.The annual average temperate and the number of students enrollment in secondary schools demonstrate a certain positive influence on the distribution of mushroom poisoning in Hunan.

Estimating risk factors of urban malaria in Blantyre, Malawi: A spatial regression analysis

Objective: To estimate risk factors of urban malaria in Blantyre, Malawi, with the goal of understanding the epidemiology and ecology of the disease, and informing malaria elimination policies for African urban cities that have markedly low prevalence of malaria. Methods: We used a case-control study design, with cases being children under the age of five years diagnosed with malaria, and matched controls obtained at hospital and communities. The data were obtained from Ndirande health facility catchment area. We then fitted a multivariate spatial logistic model of malaria risk. Covariate and risk factors in the model included child-specific, household and environmental risk factor (nearness to garden, standing water, river and swamps). The spatial component was assumed to follow a Gaussian process and model fitted using Bayesian inference. Results: Our findings showed that children who visited rural areas were 6 times more likely to have malaria than those who did not [odds ratio (OR) = 6.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.79-9.61]. The risk of malaria increased with age of the child (OR = 1.01, 95% CI: 1.003-1.020), but reduced with high socio-economic status compared to lower status (OR = 0.39, 95% CI: 0.25-0.54 for the highest level and OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.47-0.94 for the medium level). Although nearness to a garden, river and standing water showed increased risk, these effects were not significant. Furthermore, significant spatial clusters of risk emerged, which does suggest other factors do explain malaria risk variability apart from those established above. Conclusions: As malaria in urban areas is highly fuelled by rural-urban migration, emphasis should be to optimize information, education and communication prevention strategies, particularly targeting children from lower socio-economic position.